Predicting flash floods
Flash floods, walls of water that quickly sweeps across an area, are the floods that result in the most loss of life and property. Meteorologists and hydrologists struggle to predict such floods because they are caused by a combination of intense rainfall and ground conditions that promote heavy runoff. In some cases the ground can be too dry to soak up rain, in others too wet.
In July 1996 a major flash flood in the Ha! Ha! River basin in Quebec caused the most devastating flood disaster in modern Canadian history. A team of scientists led by 捆绑SM社区 Chair of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences , Professor Charles Lin published an article in the January 29, 2002, issue of Geophysical Research Letters in which they explain a new method to help predicting flashfloods.
In a "A coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling study of the 1996 Ha! Ha! River basin flash flood in Quebec, Canada" Centre de recherche en calcul appliqu茅 (CERCA)* researchers Lei Wen, Michel B茅land and Diane Chaumond, together with 捆绑SM社区 Centre for Climate and Global Change Research Charles Lin, explain how they use a new coupled atmosphere-hydrological model to simulate the flood.
By estimating potentially dangerous runoff and then determining the most likely flow paths, such a modeling system could allow meteorologists and hydrologists to do a better job of predicting flash floods than they can currently do with only precipitation data.
* Montreal based CERCA is a not-for-profit organization whose mission is to support university research in computation of interest to industry and government . It specializes in the study of complex physical systems through mathematical modeling, intensive computation, computer simulation and scientific visualization. CERCA undertakes R&D projects and advanced technical studies for partners and clients from the private sector, the public sector and universities.
